ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, EXPORTS, AND GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE RELATED TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIA

Vicri Rahmatin  Qadri; Sri Indah  Nikensari; Suparno Suparno

doi:10.53067/ije3.v2i3.102

Authors

Vicri Rahmatin Qadri Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Indonesia
Sri Indah Nikensari Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Indonesia
Suparno Suparno Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53067/ije3.v2i3.102

Keywords:

Export, Government Expenditures, Business Confidence, Business Confidence; Government Expenditures; Export, Consumer Confidence, Economic Growth

Abstract

Economic growth is still the main indicator to see the development of economic activity. This study aims to determine the effect of consumer confidence, business confidence, government spending, and exports on economic growth in Asian countries, before the Covid pandemic occurred. Panel data were collected during the period 2015 - 2019 in Asian countries, which were analyzed using multiple linear regression equations. The results show that all the proposed variables have a positive effect on economic growth in Asia, except for the Government Expenditure factor. These results also show that before the Covid pandemic, consumer confidence, business confidence and exports in each country still contributed to economic growth, although based on the determination test, only 50.27% of these variables explained the movement of economic growth in Asia

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Andriyani, D., & Nurmauliza. (2018). Pemerintah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 01(April), 8–14.

Anitasari, M., & Soleh, A. (2015). Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Bengkulu. EKOMBIS REVIEW: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 3(2), 117–127. https://doi.org/10.37676/ekombis.v3i2.139

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2013). Indeks Tendensi Bisnis dan Indeks Tendensi Konsumen Tahun 2013, 3.

Bakari, S., & Mabrouki, M. (2017). Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panama. Journal of Smart Economic Growth, 2(1), 67–79. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314646735

Berthe, F. (2020). The global economic impact of ASF. Bulletin de l’OIE, 2020(1), 1–2. https://doi.org/10.20506/bull.2020.1.3119

Bhargava, S., Buzzell, C., Charm, T., Das, R., Fradin, M., Grimmelt, A., … Seid, C. (2020). A global view of how consumer behaviour is changing amid COVID-19. McKinsey & Company, 1–15. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/a-global-view-of-how-consumer-behavior-is-changing-amid-covid-19

Boshoff, W. H., & Fourie, J. (2020). Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-030-35754-2

Celik, S., Aslanoglu, E., & Uzun, S. (2010). Determinants of Consumer Confidence in Emerging Economies: A Panel Cointegration Analysis. Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 12, 1–19. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1611-1699.2009.10.161-168

Ghozali, Imam & Ratmono, Dwi. 2017. Analisis Multivariat Dan Ekonometrika Teori, Konsep, dan Aplikasi dengan Eviews 10. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.

Jhingan, M.L. 2010. Ekonomi Pembangunan dan Perencanaan. Jakarta: PT. Raja Grafindo Persada.

Jongh, J. de, & Mncayi, P. (2018). An econometric analysis on the impact of business confidence and investment on economic growth in post-apartheid South Africa. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 10(1), 115–133. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329527155

Kusuma, H., Sheilla, F. P., & Malik, N. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor Dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (Studi Perbandingan Indonesia Dan Thailand). Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 10(2), 140. https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v10i2.17493

Luong, K. Van, & Vixathep, S. (2016). Business Confidence Index : A Reflection of Business Sentiment in Viet Nam. Journal of International Cooperation Studies, 23(2), 1–28. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320274225

Mangkoesoebroto, Guritno. 1993. Ekonomi Publik. Yogyakarta: BPFE

Mankiw, N. Gregory. 2007. Makro Ekonomi, Edisi Keenam. Jakarta: Erlangga.

Matsusaka, John G. & Argia, M Sbordone (1995). Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations. Economic Inquiry 33, no. 2, pp. 296-318.

Mazurek, J., & Mielcová, E. (2017). Is the consumer confidence index a suitable predictor of future economic growth? Evidence from the USA. Economics and Management. 2 (XX), 30-45. http://dx.doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2017-2-003

Soliyev, I. I., & Ganiev, B. B., 2021. Key Factors Influencing Economic Development. European Journal of Research Development and Sustainability (EJRDS). Available online at 48(3), 39–62. Retrieved from www.ine.es

Sorić, P. (2018). Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective. Empirica, 45(2), 261–282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-016-9360-4

Sukirno, S. 2013. Makroekonomi: Teori Pengantar (3rd ed.). Jakarta: Rajawali Pers.

Todaro, P., & Smith, S. C. (2006). Pembangunan Ekonomi (Terjemahan dari Economic Development). (H. Munandar & D. Barnadi, Eds.) (Sembilan). Jakarta: Erlangga.

Utaka, A. (2003). Confidence and the real economy - The Japanese case. Applied Economics, 35(3), 337–342. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840210135205

Vardari, M. L. (2017). Relationship between Import-Exports and Economic Growth: The Kosova Case Study. SSRN Electronic Journal, (March). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2889731

Yuniarti, P., Wianti, W., & Nurgaheni, N. E. (2020). Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. SERAMBI: Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Dan Bisnis Islam, 2(3), 169–176. https://doi.org/10.36407/serambi.v2i3.207