Analysis of Tariff Policy in The Global Trade War: Its Impact on The Industrial Sector and International Trade

Enjum Jumhana; Nilla Bella; Harry Qurba

doi:10.53067/ije3.v5i3.411

Authors

Enjum Jumhana Universitas Bina Bangsa
Nilla Bella Universitas Bina Bangsa
Harry Qurba Universitas Dahrma Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53067/ije3.v5i3.411

Keywords:

Tariff Policy, Trade War, Industry, International Trade, Protectionism

Abstract

The trade war between major economies, particularly the United States and China, has created new dynamics in the global trade system. Tariff policies imposed by these countries have reshaped global supply chains, altered industrial cost structures, and disrupted export–import flows across multiple sectors. This study has aimed to analyze the effects of tariff policies within the context of the trade war on the industrial sector and international trade, and to examine their implications for economic policy strategies in developing economies. A descriptive–comparative method has been employed, utilizing secondary data from international institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and WTO covering the period 2015–2024. The analysis has focused on the development of tariff levels, export–import values, and the industrial sector’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The findings have shown that protectionist tariff policies have tended to suppress export performance, increase production costs, and widen trade deficits. However, countries that have strengthened industrial productivity and diversified export markets have proven more resilient. These results highlight the importance of adaptive, competitiveness-oriented trade policies amid global uncertainty.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Bown, C. P. (2021). The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(4), 805-843.

Chang, A. B., Oppenheimer, J. J., Irwin, R. S., Adams, T. M., Altman, K. W., Azoulay, E., ... & Vertigan, A. E. (2020). Managing chronic cough as a symptom in children and management algorithms: CHEST guideline and expert panel report. Chest, 158(1), 303-329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chest.2020.01.042.

Elia, S., Giuffrida, M., Mariani, M. M., & Bresciani, S. (2021). Resources and digital export: An RBV perspective on the role of digital technologies and capabilities in cross-border e-commerce. Journal of Business Research, 132, 158-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.010

Grübler, J., & Reiter, O. (2021). Characterising non-tariff trade policy. Economic Analysis and Policy, 71, 138-163.

International Monetary Fund. (2023). World Economic Outlook: Trade Fragmentation and Global Supply Chains. Washington, DC: IMF Publications.

Irwin, D. A. (2017). Clashing over commerce: A history of US trade policy. University of Chicago Press.

Itakura, K. (2020). Evaluating the impact of the US–China trade war. Asian Economic Policy Review, 15(1), 77-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12286.

Jazuli, M. R., Idris, M. M., & Yaguma, P. (2022). The importance of institutional quality: Reviewing the relevance of Indonesia’s Omnibus Law on national competitiveness. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01343-w.

Khoso, F. H., Baseer, A., Afzal, I., ur Rehman, S., & Kaskar, F. U. (2025). Impact of tariffs on trade: analyzing the effects of tariffs on international trade and economic growth. Research Journal for Social Affairs, 3(3), 367-371. https://doi.org/10.71317/rjsa.003.03.0229

Kreuter, H., & Riccaboni, M. (2023). The impact of import tariffs on GDP and consumer welfare: A production network approach. Economic Modelling, 126, 106374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106374.

Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2018). International Economics: Theory and Policy (11th ed.). Pearson Education.

Purba, J. H. V., Mulyana, M., & Satria, W. I. (2025). Analyzing the Impact of Import Tariffs, Trade Dynamics, and Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan, 13(2), 1215-1226. https://doi.org/10.37641/jimkes.v13i2.3005

Ran, Q., Lee, S. Y., Zheng, D., Chen, H., Yang, S., Moore, J. C., & Dong, W. (2023). Potential health and economic impacts of shifting manufacturing from China to Indonesia or India. Science of the Total Environment, 855, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158634.

Sharma, R., & Sheth, J. (2021). Trade wars and global supply chain dynamics: Emerging perspectives. Journal of Global Economics, 12(3), 101–118.

Sharma, R., Sinha, A., & Kautish, P. (2021). Do economic endeavors complement sustainability goals in the emerging economies of South and Southeast Asia?. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 32(3), 524-542. https://doi.org/10.1108/meq-10-2020-0218.

World Bank. (2022). Global Trade Watch 2022. Washington, DC: The World Bank Group.

World Trade Organization. (2023). World Trade Report 2023: Re-globalization for a Secure, Inclusive and Sustainable Future. Geneva: WTO Publications.

Yang, T., Lau, W. Y., & Bahri, E. N. A. (2025). The impact of us-China trade war on China’s exports: evidence from difference-in-differences model. SAGE Open, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251328482